> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://www.designreference.xyz/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://www.designreference.xyz/cognitive-tools/universal/decision-making/second-order-thinking.md).

# Second-order Thinking

Putting a lens on the long-term consequences of decisions

<figure><img src="https://1194756820-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2F7GrawCzldiDSsP1yfNLi%2Fuploads%2Fgit-blob-edc82a15582e30a50b88dadb06d6a3dc46a4a94e%2Fsecond-order-thinking-by-Howie-Mann.png?alt=media" alt=""><figcaption><p>Image by <a href="https://mannhowie.com/second-order-thinking">Howie Mann</a></p></figcaption></figure>

Second-order thinking is the practice of considering the long-term consequences of a decision, rather than just the immediate effects. It involves thinking beyond the first-order consequences, which are the most obvious and immediate results of an action, to the second-order consequences, which are the less obvious and often unintended consequences that may arise later.

For example, if you're considering quitting your job to start your own business, first-order thinking would focus on the immediate benefits, such as increased freedom and the potential for higher earnings. Second-order thinking, on the other hand, would also consider the potential drawbacks, such as the risk of financial instability and the loss of job security.

Second-order thinking is a valuable skill that can help you make better decisions in all areas of your life. It can help you avoid making mistakes that you may later regret, and it can help you achieve your long-term goals.

#### Further Reading

{% embed url="<https://untools.co/second-order-thinking/>" %}

{% embed url="<https://fs.blog/second-order-thinking/>" %}

{% embed url="<https://medium.com/mental-models-product/mental-models-product-5-second-order-thinking-893e510c428c>" %}

{% embed url="<https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/second-order-thinking-mental-model-kevin-mcdonnell/>" %}

{% embed url="<https://www.mindtools.com/ar3obbe/howard-marks-second-level-thinking-skills>" %}

{% embed url="<https://medium.com/the-modern-scientist/mental-model-second-order-thinking-676a32258ab3>" %}

{% embed url="<https://mannhowie.com/second-order-thinking>" %}


---

# Agent Instructions
This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com.

## Querying This Documentation
If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation by asking a question.

Perform an HTTP GET request on the following URL with the `ask` and `goal` query parameters:

```
GET https://www.designreference.xyz/cognitive-tools/universal/decision-making/second-order-thinking.md?ask=<question>&goal=<user_goal>
```

`ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language.
`goal` is what the user is ultimately trying to achieve, the reason they need the answer. Sharing it helps GitBook give you a better, more relevant answer. A goal is most helpful when it describes the outcome the user wants rather than restating the question. For example, with `ask=how do I create an API token`, a goal like `automate deployments from our CI pipeline` lets GitBook tailor the answer to that use case.

The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation.

Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.